Risk vs Uncertainty
Risk thiab Uncertainty yog cov ntsiab lus uas tham txog kev cia siab yav tom ntej. Kev pheej hmoo yog qhov tseem ceeb hauv lub neej thiab Tsis muaj kev pheej hmoo, tsis muaj qhov nce, yog qhov qhia hauv B-tsev kawm ntawv, tab sis qhov txawv ntawm qhov kev pheej hmoo thiab qhov tsis paub tseeb yog dab tsi? Qhov no yog ib lo lus nug baffling uas tseem ua rau tib neeg tsis meej pem, thiab tsab xov xwm no npaj siab los qhia cov dab neeg hais txog ob lo lus no los ntawm kev qhia lub ntsiab lus thiab kev siv ntawm ob lo lus no.
Risk
Lub neej pib nrog kev pheej hmoo, thiab tej zaum tsis muaj tib neeg kev sim siab uas tsis cuam tshuam txog qee qhov kev pheej hmoo. Txhua yam kev ua ub no muaj qee qhov kev pheej hmoo, tab sis qee qhov muaj kev pheej hmoo ntau dua li lwm tus. Piv txwv li, sim nce Mount Everest yog qhov kev txaus ntshai taug txuj kev nyuaj, tab sis txawm tias koj tawm mus tsav koj lub tsheb ncig hauv nroog, muaj qee qhov kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev sib tsoo. Muaj ntau lub ntsiab lus ntawm kev pheej hmoo, thiab txawm hais tias txhua tus tham txog ntau yam sib txawv, lawv txhua tus pom zoo rau ib qho thiab qhov ntawd yog cov teeb meem yav tom ntej lossis teeb meem uas tuaj yeem zam lossis txo qis thaum ua haujlwm.
Tsis paub meej
Nyob hauv kev sib tham, kev pheej hmoo thiab kev tsis paub tseeb zoo li yog ib qho thiab tib yam. Nws yog ib lo lus uas hais txog kev ua lossis cov xwm txheej uas ib tus tsis muaj kev tswj hwm thiab yuav tshwm sim yav tom ntej. Kev tsis paub meej muaj qhov cuam tshuam X cuam tshuam thaum twg nws siv los ntawm kev nkag siab tias nws tsis tuaj yeem ntsuas lossis ntsuas. Thaum koj tsis paub qhov tshwm sim ntawm ib qho kev ua ub no, koj tsis paub meej txog nws. Piv txwv li, ib yam dab tsi tshwm sim thawj zaug, koj tsis paub txog qhov nws yuav tshwm sim li cas.
Qhov txawv ntawm Risk thiab Uncertainty
Yog li nws yog qhov tseeb tias txawm tias ob qho 'kev pheej hmoo thiab tsis paub tseeb' tham txog kev poob lossis kev phom sij yav tom ntej, thaum muaj kev pheej hmoo tuaj yeem suav thiab ntsuas; tsis muaj kev paub txog kev paub tsis meej. Kev pheej hmoo yog li ze rau qhov tshwm sim uas koj paub tias qhov kev pheej hmoo ntawm qhov tshwm sim yog dab tsi. Hauv kev twv txiaj, piv txwv li, yog tias koj tab tom muaj kev pheej hmoo ntawm tus lej tshwj xeeb hauv kev ua si ntawm roulette, koj paub tias qhov tshwm sim ntawm tus lej thaum kawg tshwm sim yog 1/29 lossis tus lej tam sim no hauv qhov kev ua si, thaum tsis paub tseeb yog tshwm sim thaum koj tsis paub meej qhov tshwm sim li ntawm qhov muab nyiaj rau tus nees hauv kev sib tw nees.
Kev pheej hmoo thiab tsis paub tseeb yog cov ntsiab lus uas hais txog kev cia siab yav tom ntej, tab sis qhov uas koj tuaj yeem txo qis kev pheej hmoo los ntawm kev noj cov cai tswj kev noj qab haus huv kom ntsib lub neej tsis paub tseeb, koj tsis tuaj yeem tshem tawm qhov tsis paub tseeb ntawm lub neej tag nrho.
Thaum lub dav hlau tau tshaj tawm, ntau tus neeg ntshai ya hais tias nws txaus ntshai heev, thiab qhov tseeb lawv yog. Tab sis nrog kev nce qib thev naus laus zis, qhov kev pheej hmoo raug txo qis heev, txawm tias tseem muaj qhov tsis paub tseeb uas dhau ntawm tib neeg kev tswj hwm.
Thaum koj tsis paub meej, koj tsis paub meej tias yuav muaj dab tsi tshwm sim tom ntej. Thaum koj ceev faj tiv thaiv kab mob, koj yuav txo tau txoj kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev ntes nws. Yog li nws pom tseeb tias qhov kev pheej hmoo yog thaum koj paub tias muaj kev phom sij, tab sis qhov tshwm sim muaj qhov tshwm sim tsawg heev, tab sis qhov tsis paub tseeb yog thaum koj tsis paub dab tsi txog qhov tshwm sim.
