Qhov Tseem Ceeb Qhov txawv - Inflation vs Recession
Kev nce nqi thiab kev poob nyiaj txiag yog ob yam tseem ceeb ntawm macroeconomics, txhais tau tias lawv cuam tshuam rau kev lag luam tag nrho; tsis yog tshwj xeeb rau ib pawg neeg lossis cov lag luam. Yog li ntawd, kev nkag siab txog cov yam no tuaj yeem pab txiav txim siab zoo los tiv thaiv cov khoom muaj nqis thiab kev nqis peev. Qhov sib txawv tseem ceeb ntawm kev nce nqi thiab kev poob qis yog tias kev nce nqi yog lo lus siv los hais txog kev nce qib ntawm tus nqi thaum qhov kev lag luam poob qis yog theem ntawm kev txo qis hauv kev lag luam.
Kev nce nqi yog dab tsi?
Inflation yog qhov kev nce qib ntawm tus nqi hauv kev lag luam. Kev txo qis hauv kev yuav khoom yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm Inflation.
E.g. Yog tus neeg siv khoom muaj $100 los yuav cov khoom xaiv xyoo 2016, nws yuav tsis muaj peev xwm yuav tib yam khoom nrog $ 100 tom qab 2 xyoos txij li tus nqi yuav nce ntxiv thaum ntawd.
ntsuas kev nce nqi
Kev nce nqi yog ntsuas los ntawm Consumer Price Index (CPI) thiab pab txhawb kev ntsuas tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm cov qauv ntawm cov khoom feem ntau hu ua 'lub pob ntawm cov khoom'. Kev thauj mus los, zaub mov thiab kev kho mob yog qee yam khoom tseem ceeb suav nrog hauv pob tawb no. Qee qhov kev lag luam muaj qhov txawv txav siab nce nqi rau lub sijhawm ntev dua. Qhov no yog hu ua 'hyperinflation', uas tuaj yeem suav hais tias yog tus pabcuam tseem ceeb rau kev lag luam kev lag luam mus ntev.
E.g. Hauv xyoo 2014 Forbes magazine tau txheeb xyuas 3 lub tebchaws Venezuela, Iran thiab Argentina yog lub tebchaws uas muaj tus nqi nce siab tshaj plaws thiab tus nqi no tau nce siab heev rau lub tebchaws no.
Tus nqi ntawm Inflation
Tus nqi nce siab tsis zoo rau kev lag luam, thiab nws cov nqi cuam tshuam yog,
khau tawv nqi
Qhov no hais txog lub sijhawm siv thaum tab tom nrhiav lwm txoj hauv kev los yuav ntawm tus nqi zoo tshaj vim tus nqi siab.
Menu cost
Vim tias muaj kev nce nqi siab, cov tuam txhab yuav tsum hloov lawv cov nqi ntau zaus txhawm rau ua kom muaj kev hloov pauv thoob plaws kev lag luam, thiab qhov no tuaj yeem ua haujlwm tau nyiaj ntau. Lub sij hawm yog muab los ntawm qhov tseeb tias cov tuam txhab xws li cov khw noj mov yuav tsum tsis tu ncua luam tawm cov ntawv qhia tshiab kom muaj kev cuam tshuam txog kev hloov pauv ntawm cov nqi.
Qhov ntxeev ntawm kev nce nqi yog hu ua 'Deflation', thiab qhov no tshwm sim thaum tus nqi ntawm cov khoom thiab cov kev pabcuam poob qis. Qhov no tsis yog qhov xwm txheej zoo ib yam vim nws qhia tias tsis muaj kev xav tau ruaj khov hauv kev lag luam. Kev thov yog qhov tseem ceeb uas ua rau muaj kev lag luam, yog li tsis muaj kev thov, kev lag luam feem ntau muaj kev ntxhov siab. Yog li, txhua qhov kev lag luam yuav tsum tswj hwm kev nce nqi ntawm ib theem, qhov tseem ceeb nce lossis txo qis tuaj yeem ua rau qhov xwm txheej tsis zoo.
Figure_1: 2013 Inflation rates map of the world raws li International Monetary Fund
Kev poob qis yog dab tsi?
Kev Txom Nyem yog txhais tias txo qis hauv qib kev ua haujlwm hauv kev lag luam. Yog tias kev lag luam ntsib kev lag luam tsis zoo raws li ib lub teb chaws Cov Khoom Siv Hauv Zej Zog (GDP) rau ob peb lub hlis sib law liag; ces hais tias kev lag luam nyob rau hauv ib tug recession.
Cas of Recession
Inflation
Kev nce nqi tuaj yeem hais tau yog qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws rau kev lag luam kev lag luam raws li qhia hauv daim duab 2.
Tsov rog, kev puas tsuaj ntuj tsim thiab lwm yam kev puas tsuaj zoo sib xws
Cov peev txheej ntawm kev lag luam raug tshem tawm thiab nkim vim kev ua tsov ua rog thiab kev puas tsuaj ntuj tsim, thiab GDP tuaj yeem cuam tshuam loj heev thaum muaj kev puas tsuaj loj.
Txoj Cai Tswjfwm
Tsoomfwv siv cov cai sib txawv xws li kev tswj hwm nyiaj hli thiab nqi; cov no yuav raug suav hais tias tsis zoo los ntawm cov tub ua lag luam thiab cov lag luam. Yog li kev lag luam yuav raug kev txom nyem.
Kev poob haujlwm
Vim kev nce nqi siab thiab nce tus nqi ntawm kev tsim khoom, cov tuam txhab yuav tsum tso cov neeg ua haujlwm. Qhov no, dhau los, tuaj yeem ua rau txo qis ntawm ntau cov khoom tsim.
Kev poob qis yog ib feem ntawm lub voj voog ua lag luam; ib qho kev lag luam tsis tuaj yeem loj hlob tsis tu ncua yam tsis muaj kev cuam tshuam tsis zoo txhua. Yog li ntawd, kev lag luam kev lag luam yog qee yam inevitable. Txawm li cas los xij, cov kev cuam tshuam tsis zoo ntawm kev lag luam tuaj yeem tswj tau kom txo tau nws cov kev puas tsuaj los ntawm kev tswj xyuas qhov ua rau kev poob nyiaj txiag xws li kev nce nqi thiab kev poob haujlwm. Tsoom fwv muaj lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb hauv kev lag luam xws li kev lag luam vim kev lag luam cuam tshuam rau tag nrho lub teb chaws.
Figure_2: Yuav Ua Li Cas Inflation ua rau Kev Txom Nyem
Qhov txawv ntawm Inflation thiab Recession yog dab tsi?
Inflation vs Recession |
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| Inflation yog tshwm sim los ntawm kev nce nqi hauv cov nqi | Kev poob nyiaj tuaj yeem tshwm sim los ntawm ntau yam, thawj qhov yog kev nce nqi. |
| Kev lag luam ntsib kev nce nyiaj nce ntxiv. | Kev poob nyiaj txiag tau ntsib hauv qee yam kev lag luam nkaus xwb. |
| ntsuas | |
| Inflation yog ntsuas los ntawm CPI. | Kev poob qis yog ntsuas los ntawm kev txo qis hauv GDP |
Summary – Inflation vs Recession
Qhov sib txawv ntawm kev nce nqi thiab kev lag luam poob qis yog tshwm sim los ntawm cov txiaj ntsig kev lag luam tsis zoo; kev lag luam poob qis yog qhov kev lag luam loj poob qis feem ntau tshwm sim los ntawm kev nce nqi.
